Even though the Ravens aren't getting any Compensatory picks this year...

[B-more Ravor]

.... this is always a good read and really helps demystify how Comp picks are awarded:

http://forums.kffl.com/showthread.php?t=247418

[12jg34]

This guy does a good job at predicting the comp picks. I'm surprised someone like ESPN doesn't pick him up to write this one column every year.

It'll truly be interesting to see how the Ravens comp picks shake out for the 2010 draft. The big signings are Foxworth and Birk. The losses are Scott, Brown, and Leonard. Any chance the net effect is that the Ravens get a 4th rounder, or will it most likely be a fifth?

[crazyraven]

This guy is football maven. You really have to be serious about the NFL Draft to get that in to breaking the secret code on how the NFL passes out comp picks.

...amazing.

[awalt]

You know I never thought about this before...

Looking at this chart, if the numbers don't change a lot, the Ravens may likely get two third round picks next year, one for Bart Scott and one for Jason Brown - assuming they have decent years. No surprise there.

BUT - what I did not think about, is that IF the Ravens should sign someone like Torry Holt to an effectively 7-8MM year for 3 or 4 years, they in effect lose a third round pick next year because of it. There is a cost to making a major FA signing now. Not that they likely have the cap space to make that signing, I just never put 2 and 2 together to realize it's like we would be giving someone the third round pick for the right to sign Holt. That makes the price even more significant.

Another small note - that last flurry of bidding for Bart Scott, whether Oz had a role in it or not, likely moved him from a 4th round comp pick to a 3rd round. If Oz had a hand to play in running up the price, it was a brilliant move...

[jonboy79]

No,

Holt and Pace were just cut, and thus do not factor in to compensatory selections.

[Raveninwoodlawn]

You know I never thought about this before...

Looking at this chart, if the numbers don't change a lot, the Ravens may likely get two third round picks next year, one for Bart Scott and one for Jason Brown - assuming they have decent years. No surprise there.

BUT - what I did not think about, is that IF the Ravens should sign someone like Torry Holt to an effectively 7-8MM year for 3 or 4 years, they in effect lose a third round pick next year because of it. There is a cost to making a major FA signing now. Not that they likely have the cap space to make that signing, I just never put 2 and 2 together to realize it's like we would be giving someone the third round pick for the right to sign Holt. That makes the price even more significant.

Another small note - that last flurry of bidding for Bart Scott, whether Oz had a role in it or not, likely moved him from a 4th round comp pick to a 3rd round. If Oz had a hand to play in running up the price, it was a brilliant move...

Well, Foxworth's signing will likely cancel one or lower the value of one next year.

[B-more Ravor]

No,

Holt and Pace were just cut, and thus do not factor in to compensatory selections.

Yes, and ...


Well, Foxworth's signing will likely cancel one or lower the value of one next year.

...yes.

Right now - and granted deals like Haynesworth's really will skew this stuff - I would think that Scott at $8M/year would seem to garner a 3rd rounder.

The Brown and Foxworth would likely cancel, especially when you consider that Birk got a better deal than Leonhard.

[Ravenswarrior19]

What is the effect of re-signing your own free-agents? Does Ray count as a free agent signed, even though he was our own?

[B-more Ravor]

What is the effect of re-signing your own free-agents? Does Ray count as a free agent signed, even though he was our own?

No, it's only a matter of UFAs lost and UFAs added (but, not re-signed).

Retaining a player has no bearing.

[B-more Ravor]

FWIW, two of the Blog on ESPN - AFC-S and NFC-W - have both referenced AdamJT's work on comp picks.

[B-more Ravor]

.... this is always a good read and really helps demystify how Comp picks are awarded:

http://forums.kffl.com/showthread.php?t=247418

To show just how good this guy is at predicting these, here are the Comp picks as announced:

http://www.profootballtalk.com/2009/03/23/2009-compensatory-draft-picks/

He was really off by only 1 pick - the Steeler only got a 5th for Faneca, instead of a 3rd as predicted.

[Ravenswarrior19]

If anyone is interested, this guy also has an interesting blog entry about a method the Saints have used to circumvent the 30-percent-rule.

http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/2009/03/loophole-around-nfls-30-percent-rule.html

In essence, by using a "completion bonus" in a few new contracts, the Saints have rolled large portions of guaranteed money into next years cap, while leaving this year's cap hit small.

[52decleetzu]

If anyone is interested, this guy also has an interesting blog entry about a method the Saints have used to circumvent the 30-percent-rule.

http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/2009/03/loophole-around-nfls-30-percent-rule.html

In essence, by using a "completion bonus" in a few new contracts, the Saints have rolled large portions of guaranteed money into next years cap, while leaving this year's cap hit small.

As they say,there are ways around everything.

I wonder why no other teams found this loophole and exploited it like the Saints did?

[Ravenswarrior19]

As they say,there are ways around everything.

I wonder why no other teams found this loophole and exploited it like the Saints did?

It doesn't seem like many teams found it in time.

I wonder if the Ravens knew - and if this loophole may have allowed us to hold onto Bart?

[B-more Ravor]

It doesn't seem like many teams found it in time.

I wonder if the Ravens knew - and if this loophole may have allowed us to hold onto Bart?


I doubt it. Regardless of how we structured it to make him fit, we would still have had to outbid the Jets which apparently we were not going to do.

OTOH, this method may help them get something done with Suggs.

[Jeremiah W]

I provided that link as part of the plan to pursue Peppers. It is only one player and we have more than enough coming off the books in dead money to handle his entire salary in the future even if there is a cap, if we can just get by this year, we will be in good shape. Mason, Pryce and Gregg and many of the over 30 club can be dropped in the uncapped season.

Teams have set themselves up to clear cap space in 2010. I do not think enough of them will want to try to get the new deal in place in time to prevent at least one uncapped year. I do not think the owners are afraid they can not get it back in place and are ready to gamble and to call some of the bluffs.

[Ravenswarrior19]

I doubt it. Regardless of how we structured it to make him fit, we would still have had to outbid the Jets which apparently we were not going to do.

OTOH, this method may help them get something done with Suggs.

You're probably right, but we'll never know for sure...

With this tool assuring us we could fit it all in, would we have been willing to increase our offer? Did we have to flat out outbid the Jets, or just get really close?

The loophole would have at least changed the dynamics of the negotiation in those last days before free agency. (Assuming we didn't know about it)