Profootballfocus.com - NFC Key Performers in 2008

[UKRavenStockers]

Further to the AFC article that I posted up on Thursday (link here (http://www.profootball24x7.com/forum/showthread.php?t=30868)), here's our look at what the NFC has had to offer in the games we've analysed thus far.

Arizona (Games analyzed W1 @ SF, W2 vs. Mia, W6 vs. Dal and W8 @ Car)
We all know about the positives in the desert, with Kurt Warner having an excellent year, helped out by his trio of receivers, but how about a negative instead, with the play of apparently “the most underrated safety in the NFL”, Adrian Wilson (http://www.profootballfocus.com/by_player.php?tab=by_player&season=2008&page=&surn=wilson&playerid=831). Over the four games we have analyzed, Wilson is close to the bottom of our rankings of safeties, behind every other Arizona player that has taken reps at that position. Allowing 75% of all passes thrown into his coverage to be completed, he has failed to make up for it with the blitzing for which he is known, failing to register a single QB Sack, Hit or Pressure in any of the contests we have covered, on any of his 14 blitzes. Gone are the days where he lined up almost every down as an extra LB, as this season he is more frequently left deep with Antrel Rolle. Clearly a superior athlete, more production is required for the Cardinals continued improvement.

Atlanta (Games analyzed W1 @ Det, W2 @ SF, W6 vs. Chi and W10 vs. NO)
So just how good is Atlanta’s QB, Matt Ryan (http://www.profootballfocus.com/by_player.php?tab=by_player&season=2008&page=&surn=ryan&playerid=4317) this season? Well, judging by the games we’ve seen he’s a “Top Ten” calibre quarterback sitting alongside the like of Eli Manning – as a rookie. Completing 60 of his 99 pass attempts in the four games analyzed, Ryan’s completion percentage includes 5 drops from his receivers and 5 balls thrown away, showing he not only has the accuracy required, but an understanding of when to cut his losses on a play. When you look at deep passes (i.e. those of 20+ yards) his completion percentage is still highly creditable at 53% particularly given he hasn’t thrown any picks at that depth. One area he may need to work on are his shorter throws (less than 10 yards) between the numbers where his efficiency deteriorates markedly but given the fact he’s hardly been treated with kid gloves and this appears as his only obvious flaw, these touch passes will surely come. When you consider all this together with comebacks like the one against Chicago it only serves to highlight his poise this season and potential for the future.

Carolina (Games analyzed W1 @ SD, W6 @ SF, W8 vs. Ari and W10 vs. Oak)
When the Panthers drafted Jonathan Stewart they were supposed to have a great 1-2 punch, with Stewart being the guy to carry the load, and HB, DeAngelo Williams (http://www.profootballfocus.com/by_player.php?tab=by_player&season=2008&page=&surn=williams&playerid=2972) to provide some scat-back changeup, right? Well it’s not been like that at all, with Williams clearly outperforming Stewart who himself has been anything but poor. Not only is Williams averaging 5.6 yards per attempt, as you might expect for a shifty back like him, but he’s averaging 4 yards per attempt after initial contact, which trails only Earnest Graham for the top amongst starting HBs. Williams is also proving to be the bigger workhorse of the two. Over the 5 games Williams has been in for 64% of the snaps, compared to Stewart’s 36%. The one area where Stewart has been superior to Williams is in pass protection which has led to the Panthers often bringing in Stewart on third down passing situations. Williams has given up 2 pressures and a sack whilst Stewart has a perfect record.

Chicago (Games analyzed W1 @ Ind, W5 @ Det, W6 @ Atl and W9 vs. Det)
The Bears actually benched WR, Devin Hester (http://www.profootballfocus.com/by_player.php?tab=by_player&season=2008&page=&surn=hester&playerid=3002) from kick-returns in Week 12, and it’s not hard to see why, as he’s bottom in our rankings for kick-returns through four games. But it’s not all bad news for Chicago and Hester, because the drop-off in production seems to be off-set by his emergence at wide receiver, where he’s performed admirably. Hester has caught 68.2% of the passes thrown to him, and done it all without gaining more than 32 yards on any throw. A far cry from the Hester of last season that only ran fly patterns. He’s also been seeing an increased workload at WR – In the first 2 games of the season, Hester was on the field for 38% and 16% of offensive snaps (though he was injured in the latter game in the second half). In the week 9 contest he was on the field for 58% of their offensive snaps. Whilst Devin is a great returner having a bad patch, it’s also perhaps time for many to accept that not all returns are purely down to the skill of the guy with the ball in his hand and that just as the return units didn’t get enough credit previously they’re not taking enough blame now.

Dallas (Games analyzed W1 @ Cle, W3 @ GB, W6 @ Ari and W11 @ Was)
The Cowboys and Jerry Jones like to think that LT, Flozell “The Hotel” Adams (http://www.profootballfocus.com/by_player.php?tab=by_player&season=2008&page=&surn=adams&playerid=354) is one of their money guys; a guy whose position they just don’t need to worry about. This season however, Adams has been consistently one of the poorest performing Tackles in the NFL which might account for some of the struggles the supposedly potent Dallas offense has been having. Adams has been consistently dire in pass protection, allowing 3 sacks, 4 hits and 10 QB pressures in just the 4 games we’ve looked at, as well as chipping in with 5 penalties. Proportionately this is almost twice as bad as 2007 when he had a well above average season protecting Tony Romo. It’s not even as if he’s compensated with his run blocking which has also regressed markedly.

[UKRavenStockers]

Detroit (Games analyzed W1 @ Atl, W2 vs. GB, W5 vs. Chi and W9 @ Chi)
The 2006 NFL Draft is interesting to look at this season because of the 3 OLBs taken in round 1: AJ Hawk, Chad Greenway, and Ernie Sims (http://www.profootballfocus.com/by_player.php?tab=by_player&season=2008&page=&surn=sims&playerid=2954). Whilst Chad Greenway is enjoying an excellent season and AJ Hawk has become the centre of attention after moving to MLB, WLB, Ernie Sims is amongst the poorest performing OLBs in the league. He was an undersized guy coming out, but was said to hit like a train and had the speed to make up for it. Unfortunately it’s his speed that seems to be one of his biggest negatives, as he’s guilty of constant over-pursuit. His size also makes him just too easy to block in the run game, where he’s getting tossed about by every one from a guard to a TE. For a team that often struggles for pressure, the Lions also blitz their most athletic and speedy LB far less than you might imagine, only 14 times in the 4 games we’ve analyzed, and 6 of them came in one contest.

Green Bay (Games analyzed W1 vs. Min, W2 @ Det, W3 vs. Dal and W7 vs. Ind)
LT, Chad Clifton (http://www.profootballfocus.com/by_player.php?tab=by_player&season=2008&page=&surn=clifton&playerid=614) isn’t long removed from being one of the most solid Tackles in the game, but he’s a world away from that standard of play this season. Allowing 2 sacks, 3 hits and 9 QB pressures in the games we’ve analyzed, as well as 5 penalties, Clifton has been a liability in both the run game and pass blocking. Green Bay may be one of the youngest teams in the NFL, but they seem to be ageing in a couple of key positions, and with Jared Allen taking up residence in the NFC North, the Packers will need to address the declining play of Clifton. This season he’s failed to get any push in the run game at the point of attack, and has been exposed in his pass blocking. His pass blocking remains his strength when compared to run-blocking, but at the moment that small consolation to the Packer faithful who haven’t need to concern themselves in this area for some time.

Minnesota (Games analyzed W1 @ GB, W2 vs. Ind, W4 @ Ten and W11 @ TB)
For most people the story of the Minnesota D this year is Jared Allen or Kevin Williams, with both enjoying excellent seasons, or even the loss of EJ Henderson in the middle, but how many people are talking about how WLB, Chad Greenway (http://www.profootballfocus.com/by_player.php?tab=by_player&season=2008&page=&surn=greenway&playerid=2962) is playing? Ranked dead last in our OLB list for 2007, Greenway is our top ranked LB of 2008, and is visibly faster and more impressive on the field. Whereas Greenway used to fall off tackles regularly with 15 missed in 9 games last season, he has missed just 1 in the 4 contests we’ve looked at, and has been excellent against the run and when sent on the blitz. In just 26 blitzes over the 4 games, he’s produced a sack, hit or pressure on 7 occasions. His tackling has also been far more effective this season – Of his 30 tackles 16 of them have been ‘stops’, our term for a tackle that constitutes an offensive failure. His coverage has also markedly improved, allowing a smaller percentage of passes into his coverage to be completed (78.3 from 84.8) as well as a smaller average length of completion (8.8 down from 10.1). If you want a sleeper pick for the Pro Bowl this year look no further than Greenway who currently is head and shoulders above anyone else.

New York Giants (Games analyzed W1 vs. Was, W2 @ StL, W5 vs, Sea, W8 @ Pit and W10 @ Phi)
The New York Giants are flying at the moment and at this point clearly more impressive than they were last year when they took home the Lombardi Trophy. As much as the focus of many is on their D-line, after the loss of Strahan and Osi, their O-line has been performing exceptionally led by C, Shaun O’Hara (http://tinyurl.com/58mfot). Over 5 games we’ve looked at, O’ Hara has only allowed 1 hit and 1 pressure on QB Eli Manning and is a big reason that Eli has removed the ‘Happy Feet’ from his game. O’Hara also anchors that line and his run blocking has been crucial in the rushing totals piled up by Brandon Jacobs et al. His performance is even more impressive given that last season, frankly, he was awful and that the Divisional Playoff in Dallas aside he hardly had a good game. The Giants have had a number of players whose improvement has been critical to their dominance of late (Corey Webster and Kareem McKenzie are also worth mentioning) however we’re happy to stick with Shaun as the keystone.

New Orleans (Games analyzed W1 vs. TB, W2 @ Was, W8 vs. SD, W10 @ Atl and W11 @ KC)
You’ll still hear commentators during Saints games referring to LT, Jammal Brown (http://www.profootballfocus.com/by_player.php?tab=by_player&season=2008&page=&surn=brown&playerid=2230) as one of the ‘best young OTs in the game’, based on some impressive outings in his rookie year, but they must be watching a different player to us if they believe that holds true today. Brown was very poor last season, giving up a world of penalties, as well as some disappointing showings in the run game. This season though it’s his pass blocking has been diabolical, giving up 2 sacks, 7 hits and 9 QB pressures in the 5 games we’ve looked at. The Saints putting up such impressive passing numbers despite the level of Brown’s play is impressive in itself. If he is indeed to become a premier LT he needs to seriously consider the way John Abraham destroyed him in W10 where it looked for all the world like the Falcons DRE was going to end Drew Brees’ season until he was given help.

Philadelphia (Games analyzed W1 vs. StL, W2 @ SF, W9 @ Sea and W10 vs. NYG)
When talking about the best DEs in the NFL how many times have you seen Eagles DLE, Juqua Parker’s (http://www.profootballfocus.com/by_player.php?tab=by_player&season=2008&page=&surn=parker&playerid=995) name crop up? For that matter how many times have you heard the name at all? Juqua Parker (formerly Thomas), has been a constant threat from the DE position for the Eagles this season. Only Dwight Freeney has registered more QB pressures than Parker in the games we’ve seen, and Freeney recorded his 13 (to Parker’s 12) pressures in 5 games not 4. Unlike a lot of DEs he’s not a liability when asked to drop in coverage, something he does a hand-full of times per game (11 in the 4 games above) as highlighted by his interception in W6 vs. the 49ers that he returned for a touchdown. Whilst his run defense is hardly poor, he’s about average for a 4-3 DE in 2008, he does have more skill in this area than is currently on display and we believe his 2007 performances are more indicative of his true ability.

San Francisco (Games analyzed W1 vs. Ari, W5 vs. NE, W6 vs. Phi and W8 vs. Sea)
You can argue whatever you want as to the type of defence the 49ers are playing this season (for what it’s worth they play a hybrid but after starting out very much favouring 4-3 have more recently gone more 3-4) but it really doesn’t seem to matter one iota regarding the performance level of DE/OLB, Justin Smith (http://www.profootballfocus.com/by_player.php?tab=by_player&season=2008&page=&surn=smith&playerid=776). He’s been simply outstanding whether playing DLE, DRE, LOLB or ROLB. As usual, because his sack totals aren’t eye-popping, he’s not a “big name, and the 49ers are seven shades of shoddy, he won’t get the recognition he deserves. Well except by us that is and we’ll certainly name him on our Pro Bowl ballot (if we bothered to fill one in) given a similar end to the start he’s made this year. Well rounded players who get pressure but can also play the run typically do well in our rankings and that’s the type of player Justin is; a guy with very few weaknesses and a lot of strengths.

[UKRavenStockers]

Seattle (Games analyzed W1 @ Buf, W5 @ NYG, W8 @ SF and W9 vs. Phi)
When teams take a Center in the first round of the draft, they’re expected to be a pretty good player, capable of leading an O-line and dominating. After a slow start, Nick Mangold of the Jets is well on his way to becoming a very good player, but the same can’t be said for Seattle’s Chris Spencer (http://tinyurl.com/6emvr3), who not only was taken in the 1st round, but also had a lot of time on the bench to get used to the NFL before playing. We rank Spencer as one of the worst Centers this year. He’s given up 3 sacks, 3 hits and a pressure from the middle of the line as well as being routinely beaten by his man in the run game. It’s not as if Spencer is without talent as some impressive games last year against Chicago and St. Louis demonstrate but unfortunately those are the exception and the true picture is of mediocrity interspersed with exceedingly poor games. It will be interesting to compare him and Steve Vallos when we analyze the Dallas game as the rookie took over with Spencer struggling with a back problem. People give a lot of time to the notion that the Seattle O-line is still recovering from the loss of Steve Hutchinson, whereas perhaps they should focus more on the standard of play of high draft picks that aren’t performing.

St Louis (Games analyzed W1 @ Phi, W2 vs. NYG, W6 @ Was, W8 @ NE and W10 @ NYJ)
Rams fans don’t have much to smile about this season, but they can take comfort in the fact that DE, Chris Long (http://www.profootballfocus.com/by_player.php?tab=by_player&season=2008&surn=long&playerid=2243&group=) is actually performing pretty well…..on the quiet that is. Incredibly nearly every Rookie 1st rounder, barring those injured, are seeing considerable playing time and there’s a lot of good stories to tell. Long is definitely one of those but his position and the Rams lack of success obscure to some degree what’s been a very assured start. In the 5 games we’ve seen of him he has recorded 8 QB pressures and 3 sacks as well as recording 11 stops from his 12 total tackles. However it’s his consistency which is most telling; without setting the world on fire he’s had nothing below an average performance in any game we’ve seen in any facet of his play. If he can continue from here and improve over the remaining weeks and then years the Rams have a real star in their line-up The constant motor player is exactly as advertised, averaging 73% of the Rams snaps on D and making a much bigger impact than he’s likely to be given credit for. In a season of disappointments in St. Louis, Chris Long is a definite bright spot.

Tampa Bay (Games analyzed W1 @ NO, W2 vs. Atl, W6 vs. Car and W11 vs. Min)
Tampa Bay are getting the Cadillac back from injury soon, but with HB, Earnest Graham (http://www.profootballfocus.com/by_player.php?tab=by_player&season=2008&surn=graham&playerid=2243&group=) signed to his new deal and performing as he was, they were hoping not to ride the wheels off Williams too soon. Last year Graham peaked in mid-season as he picked up the load but then faded as both he and his line struggled to keep up their earlier pace. Initially, this season, Graham was running superbly, #1 overall in yards after first contact, averaging a staggering 5.4 yards after the first hit in the games we’ve graded. Then as injuries completely depleted the FB position, early in the Carolina game, he unselfishly took over and did a far better job than anyone could have expected. In that game Graham only ran the ball on 5 occasions and predictably of the 11 yards he gained, 9 of them came after contact, but he also blocked extremely well for the cause. Then, against the Vikings in Week 11, his first carry brought further injury. A high ankle sprain with ligament damage will keep him out for the rest of the year, which means that until Cadillac returns Warrick Dunn will be the starter. It’s a real shame for a quality player who deserved much better ending this time around.

Washington (Games analyzed W1 @ NYG, W2 vs. NO, W6 vs. StL and W11 vs. Dal)
Last year, the shocking and tragic death of Sean Taylor not only robbed the NFL of one of its brightest young talents but also, potentially one of the best safety pairings of all time. With Taylor playing exclusively deep, using his incredible range to eat up the space between sidelines, LaRon Landry (http://www.profootballfocus.com/by_player.php?tab=by_player&season=2008&page=&surn=landry&playerid=3622) was left to play in the box as and when required and learn his trade closer to the line. Whilst he made a reasonable fist of it, it really wasn’t until he took over Taylor’s deep role that he began to play very well. It maybe that his rather brutal encounter with Brandon Jacobs in Week 1 this year, where he was literally run over by the behemoth, is another indication that his skill set is better utilised deep as a FS because other than 3 plays he sat out after his abrupt meeting with Jacobs, Landry has been in for every defensive snap for the Redskins, and has been fantastic in deep coverage. In the 4 games we’ve seen, he’s been thrown at only 6 times, and only one of those throws has been completed, for just 8 yards. He’s also produced a sack and a QB hit from just 6 blitzes, on the few occasions he’s come up with the LBs. The emergence of SS, Chris Horton has allowed the Skins to continue to employ LaRon in a position at which he obviously excels and whilst he’ll never be another Sean Taylor he’ll certainly be good enough for just about anything else.