The Road to the Playoffs . .

[Merlin]

. .is likely going to require us to win the AFC North. I think its far more likely that we get to the playoffs through that road than through the wildcard given how easy many of the AFC East teams schedules are.

Pittsburgh has a brutal schedule -- at New England, Dallas, at Baltimore, at Tennessee. Then an easy one with the Browns at the end. If they lose 1 out of 2 between NE / TN then the door is open for us.

The Pittsburgh game in a few weeks is likely to have major playoff implications if we keep winning. If we only lose 1 game out of the next 5 we'll be in good shape, if we lose 2 there could be a shot that we miss the playoffs entirely.

Football outsiders gives us an 85% chance of making the playoffs based on their simulations and strength of schedule. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

Interestingly for those still worried about the Giants game and whether we are really able to beat "winning teams", the Outsiders also say that statistically, there is a huge gap between the G-men and the rest of the league, similar to NE last year (of course we know how that turned out).

I'm rooting for a January game in Baltimore! :happyanim

[Mista T]

Pittsburgh has a brutal schedule -- at New England, Dallas, at Baltimore, at Tennessee.

Based on the tie-breakers, the Steelers would likely have to lose three of those four - obviously including the Ravens - if we can win four of our remaining five games. A very tall order.

[awalt]

IMHO those statistics are misleading in the case of the Ravens.

My assessment is that the Ravens are for the most part an extremely well-coached team, so the teams that they have more talent than, or even the same talent, they massacre. Good coaching also produces good road wins.

However, they have some real match-up problems against good talent teams with a strong passing attack (which includes a good OL). Most of our pass rush is from the edge, so guys like Manning step up in the pocket all day and shred us. This is a by-product of having a very strong DL interior for stopping the run, and it could be alleviated by different schemes, but most times the only time we get pressure up the middle is a blitzing LB, who is either stopped cold by an interior lineman, or runs free and gets a sack. That happens rarely, so you don't see steady pressure collapsing the center of the pocket which is needed to stop QBs like Brady, Manning, etc. I know Ngata can put real pressure on a rush, but he drops back a lot, and he doesn't have a lot of interior help. I just can't remember seeing a good QB unable to step up a lot.

So - that said, our stats are better than we are because we have really pounded some average to below average teams, and the two times we were really manhandled appear like a statistical aberration as it only happened twice.

So all said, if we are on top of our game, I see 10 or 11 wins. Cincinnati, Washington, Jacksonville appear to be excellent matchups and should be winnable if we play well and don't lay a turd. Pittsburgh *should* be a win IMHO, but I put that at about 55% - 60% probability. While anything can happen in the NFL, I don't think we match up well to the Cowboys, on the road, with TO, Romo, and a strong OL, on the last home game in Dallas' stadium with all the HOFers coming back. So it looks like 10 wins or 11 based on the Steelers game.

Note, 10 wins *could* still win the division. 11 gets us in the playoffs for sure, 10 is probably 50-50. Any slip in our expected performance (or more injuries) and we are out. We have to win the winnable games. Luckily our schedule is not so bad from here on.

As for the playoffs - great experience for the young guys, to build on for next year. I don't see us beating the Jets, NE, Tennessee, Indy on the road (although anything can happen in the NFL and I sure will be rooting hard!). So it could be a 1 and out based on who we get. But this looks like it will be a great year with success and a real foundation for the next few years!

[ravenfever_com]

Look ... I never try to read anything into a game. I am a RAVENS FANS !!! I live and die with my team. I have faith that our team will do what they need to do to get to the promise land. I will never concede defeat until we lose the game. I will never say we have no chance ... (( FCOL !! The CLOWNS killed the G-Men)) ANYTHING can Happen!!

LETS GO RAVENS !!!

[RavensInBrazil]

I'm not that concerned...IIRC we hold the tiebreaker over NE because of conference record. Assuming Indy doesn't choke, that leaves the Ravens, the Pats and the Dolphins as real WC contenders, maybe the Bills. So really, I think we have a pretty good shot at the playoffs, let's just hope NE doesn't catch on fire

[StingerNLG]

I don't think 10 wins do it. The Jets, Patriots, and Colts are likely also going to have 10 wins. Actually the Jets are probably going to win their division.

10 wins can only work if we win the division I believe.

You know what though? The fact we're even TALKING about the playoffs right now tells me this season was a success considering everything. Even if somehow we went 7-9, I will be satisfied with what I have seen this year.

[Jeremiah W]

If we can manage to sweep the Bungles, we pick up a game on NE or the Steelers this week. If NE wins we have a good shot at winning the division, if they lose we still can but will be in good shape for the WC.

The Ravens have played 2 top passing attacks in the past 3 weeks and shut them down and dominated them. Houston and Philly were flying pretty high all year, and going in to the game all week the talk was about our back up secondary getting torched. After the game it is all about the other team's all pro QB getting benched. This Ravens secondary has held almost every QB they faced to the lowest Qb rating of the season or since pop warner in some cases. Peyton picked up some big plays on perfect passes and some blown coverages, but other than that game the Ravens have been stellar in the secondary no matter who was back there.

[sailorsam]

again this week the Ravens, as of now, hold the #2 wild card spot in the AFC at 8-4.
the closest teams behind are the Pats and Dolphins, both 7-5. Ravens hold tiebreakers over both teams (head-head wi Miami, AFC record with Pats).
thus, if the Ravens win 3 of last 4, they get in the playoffs, REGARDLESS of what any other team does.
remaining sched; host DC Sunday night the 7th; host Pgsburgh Sunday the 14th at 4; at Dallas Saturday night the 20th; host Jax Sunday the 26th.
might be too much to expect to win out, but I really see winning 3/4, esp wi 3 at home.
what u guys think?

[Fanman]

I don't see more than 10 wins as very possible and likey ending at 9-7.
The SKins season is on the line this week for sure, but they don't scare me...we match up will w/ them.

Pitts and Dallas I see as huge tests and I would be shocked if we split those games. Jax at home should be a win.

The key is to NOT look past anybody and just go week to week. As long as they keep winning they will get in w/out needing help.

No matter what this season has been fun and we are back on track w/ a solid staff and new franchise QB.

FM

[pyite32]

My guess is that we will win 2 of our last 4 games. Finish 10 - 6 just out of the playoffs thanks to NE's, and Indy's ridiculously easy schedules to finish the season.

Catching the Steeler's at this point is next to impossible unless they have a total meltdown and we win out. Remember they have the tie breaker. If we win 3 of the next 4 they would have to lose 3 of the next 4 for us to win the division.

No matter what I am still really happy with our season, Flacco, and the future of the Ravens' with Harbaugh.

I hope I am wrong, and I tend to be a little on the synical side in general so...