Three at ESPN have Ravens winning SB!

[yeahravens]

Jefri Chadiha, Michael Smith, and Joe Theisman all predicted the Ravens will win the big one!

Personally, I appreciate the confidence in the Ravens, but just as I get mad at those who predict the Steelers or Bengals will win the North, I can't get too giddy over our Super Bowl predictions. We still have to go out there, stay healthy, and be somewhat lucky to go all the way.

Does anyone else believe that with today's parity you need the ball to bounce your way to win it all?

[Rochardrik]

Jefri Chadiha, Michael Smith, and Joe Theisman all predicted the Ravens will win the big one!

Personally, I appreciate the confidence in the Ravens, but just as I get mad at those who predict the Steelers or Bengals will win the North, I can't get too giddy over our Super Bowl predictions. We still have to go out there, stay healthy, and be somewhat lucky to go all the way.

Does anyone else believe that with today's parity you need the ball to bounce your way to win it all?

Ther is just as much luck as skill involved. We got on a roll in 2000, and steamrolled into the SB, and kept going. Then there's the kind of luck the stillerz had in their run in '05. They were a better team in '04, but got a plethera of favorable, albeit questionable, calls, and got their thumb betrothed.:rolleyes:

[yeahravens]

Did you forget the tipped pass to Sharpe against Denver? The missed field goals and blocked field goal against Tennessee? The Oakland safety taking an over agressive path to Shannon Sharpe in Oakland allowing a 90 yard TD on 3rd and long? Plus there were a lot of fumbles and tipped balls that bounced the Ravens way that year. We got no calls, but the balls were bouncing our way.

Best defense ever as well.

[Ngata92]

I usually like the Ravens to fly under the radar, but if you guys remember in 2000, Theismann picked the Ravens to win the SB (I believe he was the ONLY analyst to do so).

However, he also predicted that Tony Banks would win the MVP so......:laugh:

[psuasskicker]

Did you forget the tipped pass to Sharpe against Denver? The missed field goals and blocked field goal against Tennessee? The Oakland safety taking an over agressive path to Shannon Sharpe in Oakland allowing a 90 yard TD on 3rd and long?

None of those games were within a TD in the final score.

Edit: We actually killed all those teams. We allowed one offensive TD in that year's four playoff games. We outscored our four opponents 95-23. There were no cases of "lucky bounces" causing us to win in any of those games...

- C -

[pecking order]

And the magic flag of defensive holding on Dilfer's INT in the SB?

As for parody in the league, its blown out of proportion. First of all, with 12 teams making each year, there is a high percentage (about 40%) that are included in the playoffs. Baseball is only 27% (8 out of 30). So the perception is the NFL is exclusive when comparing to the free-for-alls in basketball and hockey, as they allow about 50% of the teams in. In actuality, football fairly wide open.

Second, if there was parody, then most teams should have playoffs wins. Over the last ten years, 8 or 25% of the league has not won a single playoff game. With true parody, each team should have 3.5 playoff wins over that time frame. However the top 8 teams have over half of the playoff wins. Teams like New England, Denver, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia should not be so dominate if parody existed in the NFL.

Third, excluding the wild card games make the above statistics even more of a restricted class. I would not say the teams in the wild card game are the true surprise teams. Yes some have gotten hot late in the season and won it like our Ravens. However, most wild card games involve 9-7 teams (one game about 500). Over the same ten year period, each team should have 2.5 playoff wins excluding wild card games. In reality, half of the NFL teams have 1 or less. Imagine being a fan of one of those teams - fortunately the Ravens had 3 of them in one year.

[psuasskicker]

And the magic flag of defensive holding on Dilfer's INT in the SB?

First off, there was nothing magic about that flag. It was clearly holding, and a penalty is a penalty is a penalty.

Second, we won that game 34-7. Barber rushed for 49 total yards, 27 of which came on one carry close to the end of the first half. Collins was 15/39 for 114 yards, 4 INTs, and was sacked 4 times.

You're certifiably insane if you think it required "a favorable bounce/flag" for us to win that game.

- C -

[Mr.Boh]

Peckingorder, I am very interested in the "parody" in the NFL you claim is overrated. Is this some form of comedy troupe that performs for different stadiums halftime shows? Or something on TV?

[psuasskicker]

As for parody in the league, its blown out of proportion. First of all, with 12 teams making each year, there is a high percentage (about 40%) that are included in the playoffs. Baseball is only 27% (8 out of 30). So the perception is the NFL is exclusive when comparing to the free-for-alls in basketball and hockey, as they allow about 50% of the teams in. In actuality, football fairly wide open.

Why is the NFL exclusive? They're part way between basketball and baseball.

If a perception of exclusivity exists, it's not because of how many teams make it, it's because of the format of the playoffs being one game vs. several in the other big sports.


Second, if there was parody, then most teams should have playoffs wins. Over the last ten years, 8 or 25% of the league has not won a single playoff game. With true parody, each team should have 3.5 playoff wins over that time frame. However the top 8 teams have over half of the playoff wins. Teams like New England, Denver, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia should not be so dominate if parody existed in the NFL.

First, you're wrong. It's 7 teams (22%) that haven't won a playoff game in the last ten years, one of them a Houston expansion team that hasn't existed for ten years. Of the 31 teams that have existed for 10 years, 19% haven't advanced.

Let's compare to baseball and basketball. You can't say "won a game" in those two since it's easy to do that. We really need to say "advanced in the post-season" since that's what's happening in football.

In the MLB, 10 teams out of 30 (33%) haven't advanced in the playoffs in the last ten years.

In the NBA, 4 teams out of 30 (13%) haven't advanced in the playoffs.

Then again, this is somewhat proportional in each sport to how many teams actually make the playoffs. I'm not gonna do a stats analysis on how that should relate vs. how it actually does...if anyone else wants to they can feel free.


Third, excluding the wild card games make the above statistics even more of a restricted class. I would not say the teams in the wild card game are the true surprise teams. Yes some have gotten hot late in the season and won it like our Ravens. However, most wild card games involve 9-7 teams (one game about 500). Over the same ten year period, each team should have 2.5 playoff wins excluding wild card games. In reality, half of the NFL teams have 1 or less. Imagine being a fan of one of those teams - fortunately the Ravens had 3 of them in one year.

First, I would bet it's not much different from baseball and basketball, ala what I showed above. Second, it's the same or better than other sports over the last ten years for championship winners. Seven different teams have won over the last ten years in baseball and football, five in basketball.

And lastly, you cannot possibly hope to have enough data over the last ten years to make a valid judgement of whether or not there is more parity in the NFL than other leagues.

- C -