It’s often difficult to understand how others view the world, but I wanted to give a window into how I do in the context of an evaluation I made 4 years ago.  In 2008, I wanted to write a piece on how evaluations need to change rapidly when assessing NFL talent and put that in the context of a particular question.  The hypothetical question was:  Who is the player most likely to be identified as the Ravens best 5th round draft pick ever in the 2020 Media Guide (the Ravens 25th season in Baltimore)?  Obviously, conditions have changed since I wrote the following after the Ravens 17-10 opening-day win versus the Bengals in 2008:  Gaither:  Looked progressively better as the game went on.  He had a false start and a holding penalty, but was otherwise 72/73 as a blocker.  As the game wore on, he got excellent push despite the fact the Bengals were rotating defensive linemen.  He denied his assignments any inside penetra...

Repeat after me…”The Ravens are entirely responsible for which teams they play.”  The only potential chance to be robbed by the schedule makers is in the order, day of the week, previous opponent schedule, or placement of the bye.  The Ravens have a number of fair elements in their schedule with no glaring difficulty.  Let’s start with the positives: ·         The Ravens play a single Thursday game, and it’s at home.  There are 18 total Thursday games, 15 of which are up for grabs (excludes Thanksgiving presents to Dallas and Detroit plus the opener for the Giants).  Playing 1 at home is a big advantage and it comes the week before a trip to Kansas City. ·         The week 6 game against Dallas is the only game the Ravens play against a team coming off a bye.  Since there are 32 opposing bye weeks to be distributed among 32 teams, ...

Cornerback was the weakest position in preseason.  Domonique Foxworth was still recovering from the ACL tear which shelved him for 2010.  Cary Williams was the team’s best corner, but did not use his physicality as much as might be hoped.  Lardarius Webb was criticized by message board pundits for his lack of technique.  Chris Carr was also struggling with injuries. Meanwhile at safety, injury questions continued to surround Ed Reed and the newly acquired Bernard Pollard could not win the starting strong safety spot from Tom Zbikowski. From there, the news got worse.  Foxworth did not play again after a poor outing in week 2 at Tennessee.  Chris Carr battled injuries and played just 16% of the snaps after 98% in 2010.  Zbikowski lost his starting job and Nakamura failed to earn a bigger defensive role.  Newly acquired Bernard Pollard played just 17 snaps the first 2 games in a 3-safety nickel package.  Jimmy Smith was injured on the ...

In the year of the quarterback, the Ravens not only led the NFL in opposing passer rating (68.8), they also led the AFC in sacks with the 2nd highest total (48) in franchise history.  As usual, the Ravens also stopped the run effectively despite injury issues at inside linebacker (ILB). The Ravens have no defensive level with more potential for change than linebacker.  Jarrett Johnson, Brendan Ayanbadejo, and Jameel McClain are free agents, and may not be back.  Dannell Ellerbe will fight to win a job.  And, of course, the Ravens must consider the future of Ray Lewis in the short or mid-term. I included Terrell Suggs with the defensive line, since he plays more snaps with a hand on the turf.  The Ravens had JJ and Kruger splitting the OLB snaps opposite Suggs.  The other linebackers have all lined up primarily as ILBs.  Players who had been with the Ravens linebacker factory for several years were let go.  Jason Phillips was released after we...

The Ravens had more than a little success defensively in 2011.    What went right above all else for the 2011 Ravens’ defense was an absence of serious injuries on the defensive line. The Ravens only had 7 players suit up the entire season and none of them played less than 17% of the total snaps.  Brandon McKinney was deactivated 5 times (including the AFCC) and Arthur Jones missed 2 games late in the season, but the Ravens otherwise dressed the same 7 men for every game. The Ravens regained some of their 2006 glory with a 48-sack regular season that included standout performances from Suggs and rookie Pernell McPhee.  As a unit, they were the key to a pass-rush scheme that was conservative by number of rushers but delivered top-tier results. The Ravens were again outstanding defending the run, registering their 16th consecutive season with less than 4.0 YPC (3.6 YPC during the regular season, 3.7 YPC for 18 games, excluding kneels).  For the last 8 se...

Prior to Sunday the Ravens had a 57-1 record with a +2 or greater turnover margin, since 2000.  That record with a turnover advantage is cited weekly in the Ravens press release.  It is to 2011 football statistics what the Yankees’ record entering the 8th inning with the lead was 30 years ago to baseball statistics.  It’s deceptively good, because there is not a meaningful context for the typical fan.  Bill James wrote that the Yankees 51-3 record in 1981 when leading entering the 8th inning wasn’t particularly exceptional (only about 2 games better than expectation for that many leads).  It really seemed less so when James revealed the Yankees were a league-worst 0-41 when trailing after 7! The turnover relationship has a chicken/egg relationship with wins, because the trailing team takes increased interception risk in trying to catch up.  For the last 12 years, the Ravens have been one of the most consistently successful franchises...

I would have liked to avoid the topic of the week, but it’s difficult not to talk about Flacco with a game of these extremes. First, let’s look at the pressure brought by the Texans.  They rushed between 4 and 7 every pass play.  To summarize by number of pass rushers: 4:  12 plays for 15 yards, 1.3 YPP, 4 sacks 5:  5/22, 4.4 YPP, 1 sack 6:  8/21, 2.6 YPP 7:  7/82, 11.7 YPP These numbers tell a story without much further subjective analysis, but I want to speak specifically to the 4 and 7-man rush schemes.  It would be a fair criticism of Flacco to say he hasn’t always known what to do with the extra time afforded by opposing 4-man rushes.  This game, however, he had ample time and space (ATS) on just 3 of 12 occasions when the Texans rushed 4.  Of the 4 sacks with a 4-man rush, 3 were fast-developing and the 4th (Q3, 13:52) involved fast-developing pressure that evolved into a slow-developing sack.  That’s...

Chuck Pagano came up with another game plan well suited to the opponent.  The Ravens were able to limit the damage from the Houston running game and with minimal pressure on Yates, forced him to throw 37 times directly into the strength of the Ravens defense. If you were genetically designing a new super soldier, you’d want to start with some of TJ’s DNA for his fearlessness. Most veteran quarterbacks playing the Ravens seem to look for Ed Reed and throw away from him.  Yates has a clearly-demonstrated affinity with Andre Johnson, but no apparent fear of the Ravens’ most talented defenders.  This led to 5 excellent interception opportunities of which 3 were converted: ·         (Q1, 4:41) Lewis stepped in front of the pass for Johnson, who was bracketed by Webb, but dropped an easy interception. ·         (Q1, 3:21) Yates threw short right for Johnson, who was ...

Ask 100 folks to come up with 3 adjectives to describe the Ravens’ defense and you’ll get a lot of overlap.  I’m guessing the most common words might be aggressive, physical, and opportunistic.  It’s that last word I want to examine for a moment. The Ravens had 13 passes defensed versus the Bengals on Sunday.  For the season, they lead the league in passes defensed with 112.  That’s 8 more than 2nd place San Francisco.  Unlike past seasons, however, they aren’t converting those hands on the football to interceptions as often.  The Ravens are in the middle of the pack with 15 interceptions, but are 28th in interceptions per PD with 1 pick every 7.47 PDs.  If they had a league-average ratio of INTs per PD, they would have 21 interceptions.  What team has had better ball skills (and no doubt a little more luck)?  That would be the Patriots who have intercepted 23 passes on just 58 PDs.  That works o...

The Ravens get all the calls.  Just ask any Steelers fan. Torrey Smith has drawn the 3 longest pass interference calls in the league this season (50 yards at Jax, 50 yards vs. SF, 60 yards vs. Cle).  No one else has drawn such a foul in excess of 45 yards.  The 60-yard PI Sunday is the longest I can ever recall.  Flacco threw the ball approximately 65 yards and Smith had separation from both Haden (via a double move) and Adams (via speed).  Adams was closer and tried to catch up as the ball was underthrown.  He contacted Smith several times as the ball arrived without turning his head.  One thing folks don’t seem to understand is just how predictable pass interference is based on the abilities of both Flacco and Smith.  Flacco has one of the strongest arms in the NFL and Smith has a burst he can turn on seemingly at will to gain separation.  When that happens, the defender will begin to flail.  If the ball is on target, Smith w...